Wheel Expectancy Calculator
What one wheel cycle is worth on average, given your own numbers.
Your numbers
Percent of cycles that finish profitably, e.g. 70.
Dollars on a winning cycle.
Dollars on a losing cycle. Enter it positive.
Project expectancy across this many cycles.
Results
- Expectancy per cycle
- $20.00
- Expected over all cycles
- $240.00
How it works
A high win rate is the wheel's most persuasive and most misleading statistic. Winning 70% of the time is worthless if the 30% of losses are three times the size of the wins, and expectancy is what makes that visible: it weighs the average win by how often you win, subtracts the average loss weighted by how often you lose, and returns the amount one cycle is worth on average. Positive expectancy means the approach makes money over enough repetitions; negative means a run of wins is hiding a strategy that loses. The one rule is that these must be your realised numbers, not your hoped-for ones.
expectancy = (win rate × average win) − ((1 − win rate) × average loss)
Worked example
With a 70% win rate, $200 average win and $400 average loss: (0.70 × 200) − (0.30 × 400) = $140 − $120 = $20 per cycle. Over 12 cycles that is $240 — a thin edge that one bad assignment erases.
Common questions
What counts as a losing wheel cycle?
Usually one where you are assigned and end up selling the shares below your net cost basis, or you close the cycle at a loss. Premium collected along the way counts toward reducing that basis.
My expectancy is positive but small. Is that fine?
It is fine only if it survives fees, taxes and one genuinely bad cycle. A thin edge over 12 cycles disappears entirely if a single loss is several times your average.
Where do I get my real win rate?
From your own closed cycles, not from a general figure. Wheel Income tracks each cycle from put assignment through called away and reports the realised win rate for you.
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Stop doing this by hand
Wheel Income screens live option chains for cash-secured puts and covered calls, then tracks every cycle from assignment through called away.
Try the screenerFor information and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Options carry risk, including loss of the entire position.