Assignment Probability Calculator
Read delta as a rough odds of being assigned.
Your numbers
Enter 0.30 or 30 — either works. Sign is ignored.
Results
- Approx. probability assigned
- 30.00%
- Approx. probability expires worthless
- 70.00%
How it works
Traders use the absolute value of delta as a quick stand-in for the probability that an option finishes in the money. A 0.30-delta put is treated as roughly a 30% chance of assignment and a 70% chance of expiring worthless. The approximation is convenient and close enough to size positions with, but it is not the real number: delta also reflects volatility and interest rates, it slightly overstates the probability for out-of-the-money options, and it says nothing about early assignment, which can happen at any time — most often on the day before a dividend.
probability assigned ≈ |delta| · probability worthless ≈ 1 − |delta|
Worked example
A put with a delta of −0.30 has roughly a 30% chance of finishing in the money and a 70% chance of expiring worthless. Wheel sellers commonly target the 0.15–0.30 band.
Common questions
Is delta really the probability of assignment?
It is a proxy, not the true figure. The proper measure is the risk-neutral probability of finishing in the money, which delta approximates well near the money and less well far out of it.
What about early assignment?
Delta says nothing about it. American options can be assigned at any time; in practice early assignment clusters around ex-dividend dates for in-the-money calls.
What delta should I sell for the wheel?
There is no single answer, but 0.15 to 0.30 is the common range — low enough that most contracts expire worthless, high enough to collect meaningful premium.
Other wheel calculators
- Premium Yield CalculatorTurn a premium into a yield you can compare across strikes and expirations.
- CSP Cash CalculatorHow much cash gets locked up when you sell a put.
- IV Rank CalculatorFind out where today's implied volatility sits in its yearly range.
- Theta Decay CalculatorSee what time decay is worth to you per day.
- Wheel Capital CalculatorHow much capital it takes to run the wheel on a given stock.
- Covered Call Max Profit CalculatorWhat a covered call makes if the shares get called away.
- Options Liquidity CheckerCheck whether a contract is actually tradable before you sell it.
- Wheel Position Size CalculatorHow many contracts fit inside your risk budget.
- Wheel Expectancy CalculatorWhat one wheel cycle is worth on average, given your own numbers.
Stop doing this by hand
Wheel Income screens live option chains for cash-secured puts and covered calls, then tracks every cycle from assignment through called away.
Try the screenerFor information and educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Options carry risk, including loss of the entire position.